Author: Paweł Musiałek 

The war in Ukraine has caused major political repercussions in Central Europe, with relations in the Visegrad Group (V4) turned upside down. Poland’s relationship with Hungary has turned frosty, while never before has it been as close to the Czech Republic and Slovakia. .

The Polish-Hungarian alliance as the foundation of the V4

The European Commission proposed that the 27 EU member states each cut their gas use by 15% from August 2022 to March 2023. The target would be voluntary, but the Commission could make it binding in a gas supply emergency. The main goal is saving 45 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas needed to weather a colder-than-average winter in case deliveries from Russia's Gazprom cease.

Albania

1. Albanian Institute for International Studies (AIIS)  

Belgium

1. EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations  
2. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Europe Center
3. International Crisis Group (ICG)  

Czech Republic

1. Prague Security Studies Institute (PSSI)
2. Institute for International Relations (IIR)  
3. EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy  

Denmark

Full Democracies

1. Costa Rica
2. Uruguay

Flawed Democracies

1. Argentina
2. Brazil
3. Chile
4. Colombia
5. Dominican Republic
6. Guyana
7. Jamaica
8. Panama
9. Peru
10. Suriname
11. Trinidad and Tobago 

Hybrid Regimes

1. Bolivia
2. Ecuador
3. El Salvador
4. Guatemala
5. Honduras
6. Mexico
7. Paraguay

Authoritarian Regimes

Full Democracies

Full Democracies are nations where civil liberties and fundamental political freedoms are not only respected but also reinforced by a political culture conducive to the thriving of democratic principles. These nations have a valid system of governmental checks and balances, an independent judiciary whose decisions are enforced, governments that function adequately, and diverse and independent media. These nations have only limited problems in democratic functioning.

Western Aligned-Democracies

Albania

1. Albanian Institute for International Studies (AIIS)

Belgium

1. International Crisis Group (ICG)
2. EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations  
3. Bruegel  
4. European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
5. Security and Defence Agenda (SDA)  
6. Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)  
7. German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF)  
8. Eurasia Council on Foreign Affairs  

Czech Republic

Austria

1. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Belgium

1. Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)  

Denmark

1. Copenhagen Consensus Center (CCC)
2. Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)

France

1. Institute du développement durable et relations internationales (IDDRI)   

Germany

UNITED STATES

Defense Budget: $ 770 billion

Total Military Personnel (est): 1,832,000 (Active 1,390,000, Reserve 442,000)

Land Forces

1. Tanks: 6,612
2. Armored Vehicles: 45,193
3. Self-Propelled Artillery: 1,498
4. Towed Artillery: 1,339
5. Rocket Projectors: 1,366

Aircraft Strength: 13,247

Source: ISW Institute for the Study of War

Russian President Vladimir Putin likely intends to annex occupied southern and eastern Ukraine directly into the Russian Federation in the coming months to consolidate his control over these territories and possibly deter Ukrainian counterattacks. The Kremlin likely plans to annex much of the Ukrainian territory currently occupied by Russian forces- portions of Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts in the south and the areas of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in the east that Russian forces and their proxies control.