If Putin were to succeed in gaining full control of Ukraine, there would be significant strategic and geopolitical consequences. The first would be a new front line of conflict in Central Europe. Russian forces would be able to station forces — land, air and missile — in bases in western Ukraine as well as Belarus. Russian forces would thus be arrayed along Poland’s entire 650-mile eastern border, as well as along the eastern borders of Slovakia and Hungary and the northern border of Romania.

The Russian economy has sunk into a crisis that it may not recover from for years, if ever. Even if the war in Ukraine were to end tomorrow, it is unlikely that Western companies and investors who have seen billions of dollars wiped out will rush back into Russia.

Many analysts and strategists believe it is only a matter of time before Ukraine is overwhelmed by Moscow’s military might. What comes next for Ukraine could be bleak, these experts say, with many expecting a long and drawn-out conflict, noting that even in the most positive scenario — that Russia withdraws its troops and Ukraine remains a sovereign nation — Europe is unlikely to return to the pre-war status quo.

Possible outcomes for Ukraine and what might happen

1. Patchy control

The Russian campaign is going to turn Ukrainian cities into rubble, creating a refugee crisis, overwhelming the borders and the border nations, and destabilizing Central and Eastern Europe. Russian forces are going to target government infrastructure and then means of command and control -- public communications, internet, radio towers, cell phone towers -- anything they can do to disrupt communications, so they separate the people from the government.

The Russian government has approved a list of States and territories which it says have carried out ‘hostile actions’ against Russia, and will permit Russian citizens and companies to pay monies they owe to creditors in these countries in rubles instead of the agreed currencies.

The State itself, Russian citizens and companies who have foreign currency obligations in the countries on the list can pay them in rubles when the payments are more than ten million rubles a month (the equivalent of more than  € 66,000 ) or a similar amount in foreign currency.

Author: Mark Galeotti and Graeme P. Herd

Scenario 1

Author : Pyotr Akopov, RIA Novosti Agency

Initially, the publication of this text was to take place after the occupation of Ukraine by Russia. The article was quickly delete, but the Internet Archive web service managed to save it.

THE PUTIN'S PROJECT

Over 15,000 medical professionals have signed this letter

' We, Russian doctors, nurses, and paramedics, strongly oppose the military actions carried out by Russian armed forces on the territory of Ukraine. We are not looking for the guilty and we do not judge anyone. Our mission is to save human lives. It is difficult to imagine a profession more humane than a doctor. And now, at this difficult time for both countries, we call for an immediate cessation of hostilities and for the resolution of all political issues exclusively by peaceful means.

Russia has now switched tactics to a “war of total annihilation.” At the moment, the Kremlin’s objective is not only at war with Ukraine, but also intent on destroying it. The main targets are civilian infrastructure, residential buildings. Russia is massacring peaceful Ukrainians.

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